Grand National Trends
There are common trends that occur in Grand National Winners that make it less random to win then you might think. Historical data shows that the majority of previous winners of the Grand National have the following in common:
- Carrying less than 11st 5lb
- Aged between 8-12 years old
- Won previous chases over 3 miles or more
- Won at least one National Hunt Chase
- Handicap rating above 135 on the day
Grand National Winner Trends:
Grand National Trends - Weight less than 11st 5lbs
It's easy to forget that the Grand National is possibly the toughest jump race in the world and lugging a heavy weight round the Aintree course makes it even harder. It is a little known fact that there has only been a handful of horses carrying more than 11st 5lb's that have ever won the Grand National and one of them was the awesome Red Rum. The winner last year Mon Mome carried a comfortable 11 stone, with no horse carrying more than 11st 5lb finishing in the top 10.
Grand National Trends - Age 8-12
The age of the horse is an important factor in the Grand National as it is good indicator of how a horses stamina to complete the race and not lose its rider. Younger horses tend to be more excitable in this intimidating race. They tend to lack the stamina required to be amongst the leaders at the end of the race. In the past 60 years no horse younger than 8 has won the Grand National. Older horses tend to find the Grand National a tough challenge and tend to fade in the latter stages if having no retired early. The optimum age is between 8-10, with 4 of the last 5 Grand National winners being aged 9-10 years old.
Grand National Trends - Won over 3 miles or more
It may seem obvious, but Stamina is the key to success in the Grand National. If you are backing a horse that has not had previous wins over 3 miles, than you are unlikely to see them win. You have to go back to 1970's for the last horse to win the National without proving themselves over at least 3 miles.
Grand National Trends - Ability to Perform in Top Races
The Grand National is one of the biggest tests any horse faces in its racing life, therefore it is highly probable that the winner will have had success in quality races leading up to the big day. There hasn't been a winner in the last 10 years that hasn't won at least 1 major National Hunt race. Look for horses that have shown good form in the 12 months prior to the big day.
Grand National Trends - Handicap Rating
Each horse will be given a handicap rating for the Grand National, which is an important indicator of their chances in the race. In the last 20 outings every winner had a handicap rating of between 136-160, with only two exceptions during this time.
The information gathered from trends and current form allowed us to put together our Grand National Insider Tips page to help you pick out your predictions for this year's Grand National.
Grand National Myths:
Cheltenham provides a good indication of form
Many punters can get drawn into the trap of thinking that a horse's form at the Cheltenham festival is an indicator of its chances at the Grand National. Unfortunately this is an urban myth as rarely does a horse perform well in both. Horses that have a serious chance in the National are deliberately trained to peak in April, a bit like how a boxer trains for a world title fight. Therefore it is almost impossible to get a horse to perform in March (Cheltenham) and April (Grand National). A good example of this is the withdrawal of Denman from the National this year. His optimistic trainer Paul Nicholl's knew it would be too much for the world class horse to run in both events.
Top jockeys can win on an average horse
The great thing about the Grand National is it really is all about the horse. There is no better example of this then the fact that one of the greatest jump jockeys of the modern era is still awaiting his first win at the Grand National. Don't pick your horse because you like the jockey, it has failed to yield results in the past.
The Grand National is all about luck
This couldn't be further from the truth. The National is a grueling test of stamina, ability and planning. There are, of course, horses that have bad luck when they fall unexpectedly or get distracted by an unseated horse. But in general, great jumpers, with a proven track record, tend to do the best at Aintree.
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