| The Insider - John Smiths Grand National 2008 betting guide |
Grand National, Aintree, 5 April, 16.15 BST, Live on BBC1
The Grand National is the showpiece event of the British horse racing calendar. This historic race, will be beamed live around the world, attracting millions of viewers, tuned into the Aintree racecourse. The popularity of the Grand National is testament to the excitement generated by one of the toughest jump races going. Consistently producing thrilling races to the line and unpredictable achievements, this is a race not to be missed. This years Grand National will be held on April 5th and will bring together some of the worlds fittest horses and bravest riders, daring to take on this ‘heart-in-mouth’ 3 mile course.The Grand National also provides a great opportunity for betting, with novices and experts getting in on the action. With so many entrants and favourable odds, not regularly offered this long, you can potentially make a packet if you choose your horse(s) wisely. You should be thinking “Anything can happen” in this race, as favourites can easily fall and rank outsiders suddenly shine, it is how horseracing should be. However the smart punter will be able to eliminate some of the no hopers from those that should come through by looking a little closer.
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Grand National Betting
So where does the casual bettor start looking for information on where to place their bets? Do you look at form, trends, odds or tips? Let’s look at them all in a betting round-up of the 2008 Grand National runners.Grand National Trends
By looking at the trends of previous Grand National winners you can start to deduce which horses should do well round this challenging course:- Since the war, no horse under 8 years old has won the National. You should be looking at horses between 8 to 12 years old. Last years winner, Silver Birch was 10 and the runners up were between 8 - 12 years old.
- In the last 20 years, every Grand National winner has had an official rating of between 136 - 157, with the exception of Bobby Jo and Little Polvier. Therefore it makes sense to pick horses with a handicap rating above 136.
- The weight carried by the horses is a key factor. Since the war only 5 races have been won in the Grand National by horses carrying more than 11 stone 5lbs (and two of them were by legendary runner Red Rum!). Look for horse’s carrying lighter loads, especially under the 11 stone mark.
- Make sure that your chosen horse has the Stamina to win over 3 miles of Aintree. So many times favourites are picked due to their performances over short courses, but this is a long tough race. You should be looking for horses who have previously won over at least three miles. Only 1 horse has won the national in the last 40 years without winning a 3 mile event beforehand.
- If you think horses that won at Cheltenham or other chases very near to the Grand National are good picks, think again. Runners that have won at Cheltenham will have been trained to peak at this race and will likely be lacking the stamina needed for the Grand National. In recent times, only Rough Quest (who came second at Cheltenham in the same year) went on to win the Grand National.
- Go for horse over jockey. Don't be put off if your chosen horse is being ridden by an inexperienced jockey. History has proven that the worlds best jump jockeys like Tony McCoy have still yet to win at the Grand National, however many first time riders have.
By process of elimination using the trend analysis from previous years, the runners to consider for the 2008 National are: , Simon, Clowdy Lane, Mckelvy, Comply or Die, King John's Castle and Kelami.
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Grand National Tips
Lets take a look at some of the runners that have been highly rated by tipsters in this years Grand National and see if their form matches it:Top choice of the Grand National favourites – Comply or Die 7/1 totesport
Comply or Die is carrying a good weight of 10-09, has a great trainer in David Pipe, and is nine years old, Irish and has run and won at this distance before. He also likes running on Good ground and has won 1 in 4 of his races on this kind of turf.
Pick of the Grand National outsiders – Naunton Brook 66/1 Blue Sq
Naunton Brook is one of only a handful of runners with winning form over 4 miles. He is likely to be upfront early, well away from all the trouble that normally follows in the chasing pack. His trainer has a keen eye for winners having trained two Grand National winners in the past.
Good choice overall for Grand National – King John’s Castle 20/1 Ladbrokes
An Irish horse, owned by JP McManus and will be ridden by Paul Carberry. He is nine years old and has finished well while carrying a lot of weight. Therefore, if he can finish 2nd with 11-12 on his back then he'll be flying it with the 10-11 he's been given for the national.
Grand National each way bet - McKelvey 22/1 Sportingbet
This Irish horse is owned by N Elliot and is 9 years old. He will be carrying 11 stone for the Grand National this year. He's also one of only a few horses to have really run, finished and been placed in a previous Grand National.
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Grand National previous winners
| Year 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 |
Winner Silver Birch Numbersixvalverde Hedgehunter Amberleigh House Monty's Pass Bindaree Red Marauder Papillon Bobbyjo Earth Summit Lord Gyllene |
Age 10 10 9 12 10 8 11 9 9 10 9 |
Weight 10-06 10-08 11-01 10-10 10-07 10-04 10-11 10-12 10-00 10-05 10-00 |
Jockey Robbie Power Niall Madden Ruby Walsh Graham Lee Barry Geraghty Jim Culloty Richard Guest Ruby Walsh Paul Carberry Carl Llewellyn Tony Dobbin |
Trainer Gordon Elliott Martin Brassil Willie Mullins Ginger McCain Jimmy Mangan Nigel Twiston-Davies Norman Mason Ted Walsh Tommy Carberry Nigel Twiston-Davies Steve Brookshaw |
Odds 33/1 11/1 7/1f 16/1 16/1 20/1 33/1 10/1 10/1 7/1f 14/1 |
All odd are quoted at the the time of writing nd are sbject to change. The team at Betastic wish you the best of luck with your picks for the John Smiths Grand National 2008.
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